Happy New Year! Here are some predictions for 2009 in the Microsoft Software space.
Windows 7 will ship and not be a flop
Microsoft has to counter Apple and the Vista mess. We are expected to get the first and only beta of Windows 7 this week. I am going to go out and say that Windows 7 will ship in time for the holiday rush at the end of 2009. It will be successful and have an Obama effect, promising change and not being the other guy (Vista).
Microsoft will continue to innovate C# and the CLR based on what Ruby does
I gave up trying to predict what Microsoft will do by listening to them at the PDC (anyone remember Hailstorm? WinFX?) and playing with betas.It is far easier to predict what Microsoft is going to do based on the actions of others. Microsoft is a reactive company, not a proactive company. The joke in vendor community is “First Microsoft tries to steal it. If they can’t steal it they try to buy it. If they can’t buy it, then they try to copy it.” While this is a cheap shot (and also accurate), there are merits to Microsoft’s strategy. They are never the first mover to anything and therefore don’t suffer from the mistakes of the first mover and can build innovative technology that is responsive to the marketplace. In business school they call this the “second mover advantage.” It seems to fit Microsoft well, they are one of the most profitable companies on the planet and I don’t expect them to change this strategy. If you want accurate predictions on .NET 4.0, 4.5, and beyond, check out what is going on in the Ruby and RoR projects.
ASP .NET MVC Framework will ship and have a very low adoption rate
How low? Both guys will leave a comment on my blog.
The marketing hype around Azure will be equally annoying as the marketing hype around “.NET Web Services” in 2002
LINQ to SQL Fans will start a petition to bring it back from the dead
Anyone still think that Linq to SQL is not dead just because it is in the framework? The VB 6 runtime is part of the Operating System and it is dead. (PS-Don’t mistake my saying L2S as being dead as an endorsement for the EF. I will follow up with a blog post later on this topic)
The Alt.NET “movement” (have you ever seen developers move?) will kick out Scott Bellware
Most of the alt.neters are guys who just want to write code and want Microsoft to support their way of working (BDD, TDD, DDD, etc) with better tooling and support for non-MS stuff (nHibernate, etc). Scott Bellware, who recently called .NET developers “stupid” while admitting that he doesn’t even code in .NET anymore, is a bad face for this group of people. Expect to see an Alt.net Vote of No Confidence pop up this summer….