# Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Happy New Year! Here are some predictions for 2009 in the Microsoft Software space.


Windows 7 will ship and not be a flop

Microsoft has to counter Apple and the Vista mess. We are expected to get the first and only beta of Windows 7 this week.  I am going to go out and say that Windows 7 will ship in time for the holiday rush at the end of 2009. It will be successful and have an Obama effect, promising change and not being the other guy (Vista).

Microsoft will continue to innovate C# and the CLR based on what Ruby does

I gave up trying to predict what Microsoft will do by listening to them at the PDC (anyone remember Hailstorm? WinFX?) and playing with betas.It is far easier to predict what Microsoft is going to do based on the actions of others. Microsoft is a reactive company, not a proactive company. The joke in vendor community is “First Microsoft tries to steal it. If they can’t steal it they try to buy it. If they can’t buy it, then they try to copy it.” While this is a cheap shot (and also accurate), there are merits to Microsoft’s strategy. They are never the first mover to anything and therefore don’t suffer from the mistakes of the first mover and can build innovative technology that is responsive to the marketplace. In business school they call this the “second mover advantage.” It seems to fit Microsoft well, they are one of the most profitable companies on the planet and I don’t expect them to change this strategy. If you want accurate predictions on .NET 4.0, 4.5, and beyond, check out what is going on in the Ruby and RoR projects.

ASP .NET MVC Framework will ship and have a very low adoption rate

How low? Both guys will leave a comment on my blog.

The marketing hype around Azure will be equally annoying as the marketing hype around “.NET Web Services” in 2002

Enough said.

LINQ to SQL Fans will start a petition to bring it back from the dead

Anyone still think that Linq to SQL is not dead just because it is in the framework? The VB 6 runtime is part of the Operating System and it is dead. (PS-Don’t mistake my saying L2S as being dead as an endorsement for the EF. I will follow up with a blog post later on this topic)

The Alt.NET “movement” (have you ever seen developers move?) will kick out Scott Bellware

Most of the alt.neters are guys who just want to write code and want Microsoft to support their way of working (BDD, TDD, DDD, etc) with better tooling and support for non-MS stuff (nHibernate, etc). Scott Bellware, who recently called .NET developers “stupid” while admitting that he doesn’t even code in .NET anymore, is a bad face for this group of people. Expect to see an Alt.net Vote of No Confidence pop up this summer….

Wednesday, January 7, 2009 11:57:33 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
"Both guys will leave a comment on my blog" - hilarious.

I'd love to see SubSonic gain momentum - this began as Rob Conery's .Net rendition of ROR's Active Record concept. I've been playing with the 3.0 release, and it's a nice change from stuff like EF that requires a big time investment up-front. Maybe something like this could even ease the passing of L2S?
Wednesday, January 7, 2009 4:18:23 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
Let me be the first of the ASP.NET MVC fans to leave a comment
Andrew Browne
Thursday, January 8, 2009 4:49:27 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
i feel the same for Windows 7
Thursday, January 8, 2009 10:16:12 PM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
I'll be the second guy for ASP.NET MVC so at least ONE of your predictions has already come true :D

Re: Scott Bellware, Scott doesn't attempt to present himself as the public face of ALT.NET (any more, if ever) and so we do a disservice to both him and the present focus of ALT.NET by reinforcing this false perception. I think from his present stated focus and his recent comments (your own link included) its clear that he's moved on from ALT.NET to other things and that's perfectly allowed. Even if there was merit to 'kicking him out' (which we don't do to anyone, BTW), we wouldn't really need to do this as its pretty clear that he's already left of his own accord :)
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